基礎知識

05. 「投手の評価(Fielding Independent Pitching)」

投手の責任範囲を絞り込むことで、純粋な投手の指標となる

投手を評価する際には、DIPS(Defense Independent Pitching)という概念の理解が鍵となる。

従来、投手は防御率や勝敗で評価されてきた。しかし防御率は、失策による失点は除かれるとはいえ、野手の働きによって左右される数字だ。野手がいい守備を連発すれば投手の働きが同じでも防御率は良くなるし、逆もまた然りといえる。勝敗に至っては守備に加えて味方打線の影響まで受けてしまい、投手の働きそのものをうまく反映した数字ではない。

セイバーメトリクスではもっと切り込んだ形で投手の働きだけを抜き出して評価することを考える。それがDIPS(守備から独立した投手数値)の概念だ。DIPSという用語は現在では守備の影響から切り離して投手を評価する考え方や、そのような考え方に基づく具体的な評価指標の総称として用いられることが多い。

守備から独立して投手を評価する指標として最もポピュラーで基本となるのは、FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)だ。これは野手の関与しようがない四死球・奪三振・被本塁打だけを用いて投手の防御率を計算する指標で、守備から独立した防御率と考えていい。 FIP=(13×被本塁打+3×(与四球-故意四球+与死球)-2×奪三振)÷投球回+定数※定数=リーグ全体の[失点率-{13×被本塁打+3×(与四球-故意四球+与死球)-2×奪三振}÷投球回]

式を見ればわかるとおり、FIPによって投手のパフォーマンスを評価するということは、端的に言ってしまえば本塁打以外のヒットをどれだけ打たれようとそれは投手の責任ではないものと考えることになる。

この点についてDIPSの考え方が提唱された当初は、安打を打たせないのも投手の能力なはずだという強い批判があった。しかし統計的な分析からは本塁打以外の打球が安打になる割合(この割合のことをBABIPと呼ぶ)が高いか低いかは投手ごとにほとんど一貫性がなく、各投手の能力とは考えられないという結論が導かれている。

もっとも現在では議論はもう少し精緻になっており、投手がBABIPに全く影響がないわけではなく若干はあるとされていて、安打になりやすいライナーを多く打たれた投手はそれに応じて評価が下がるように設計されたtRA(true Run Allowed)といった指標も存在する。tRAはFIPの発展版と評価でき、本サイトに掲載されている総合評価指標WAR(後述)における投手の評価はtRAを用いている。

守備側の数字を分析する場合におけるFIPとBABIPの分離はセイバーメトリクスを理解するうえで要となる部分だ。様々な議論はあるが、基本的には、投手がBABIPに影響できる度合いはわずかであり、FIPによって有効な評価ができると考えられている。

指標一覧

指標右側のタグは"Leaders" 内のテーブルにリンクされています。Batting > Standard と表示されていた場合、"Leaders"メニュー内の"Batting""Standard" のテーブルにリンクされています。
1B
One-base Hit
Batting > Standard
2B
Two-base Hit
Batting > Standard
3B
Three-base Hit
Batting > Standard
AVG
Batting Average
Batting > Standard
AVG
Batting Average
Batting > Advanced
AVG
hits allowed average
Pitching > Advanced
BABIP
Batting Average on Balls In Play
Batting > Advanced
BB
Base on Ball
Batting > Standard
BB
walks and given
Pitching > Standard
BB/K
walk-to-strikeout ratio
Batting > Advanced
BUH%
bunt hit percentage
Batting > Batted Ball
CG
complete game
Pitching > Standard
CS
Caught Stealing
Batting > Standard
CS
caught stealing
Pitching > Standard
CS
Caught Stealing
Fielding > Standard
CS%
Caught Stealing percentage
Fielding > Standard
CStr%
Called + swinging strike percentage
Batting > Plate Discipline
DP
Double Plays
Fielding > Standard
DPF
Double Plays Finished
Fielding > Standard
DPS
Double Plays Started
Fielding > Standard
DPT
Double Plays Turned
Fielding > Standard
ERA
earned run average
Pitching > Standard
exLI
Average Leverage Index when exiting the game
Pitching > Win Probability
FB%
fly ball percentage
Batting > Batted Ball
FB%
fly ball percentage
Pitching > Batted Ball
FP%
Fielding percentage
Fielding > Standard
FT%
Two Seam Fastball percentage
Batting > Pitch Type
FT%
Two Seam Fastball percentage
Pitching > Pitch Type
FTv
Two Seam Fastball velocity
Batting > Pitch Type
FTv
Two Seam Fastball velocity
Pitching > Pitch Type
GB%
ground ball percentage
Batting > Batted Ball
GB%
ground ball percentage
Pitching > Batted Ball
GB/FB
ground ball to fly ball ratio
Batting > Batted Ball
GB/FB
ground ball to fly ball ratio
Pitching > Batted Ball
GBOut%
ground ball out percentage
Batting > Batted Ball
GDP
Grounded into Double Play
Batting > Standard
gmLI
Average Leverage Index when entering the game
Pitching > Win Probability
HBP
Hit By Pitch
Batting > Standard
HBP
hit by pitch
Pitching > Standard
HR
home runs allowed
Pitching > Standard
IBB
Intentional Base on Ball
Batting > Standard
IBB
intentional base on balls
Pitching > Standard
IFFB%
infield fly ball percentage
Batting > Batted Ball
IFFB%
infield fly ball percentage
Pitching > Batted Ball
IFH%
infield hit percentage
Batting > Batted Ball
inLI
Average Leverage Index at the start of the inning
Pitching > Win Probability
IP
innings pitched
Pitching > Standard
K%
strikeouts rate
Batting > Advanced
K-BB%
strikeout-walk rate differential
Pitching > Advanced
LD%
line drive percentage
Batting > Batted Ball
LD%
line drive percentage
Pitching > Batted Ball
OBP
On-Base Percentage
Batting > Advanced
O-Contact%,Z-Contact%,Contact%
contact percentage
Batting > Plate Discipline
O-Contact%,Z-Contact%,Contact%
contact percentage
Pitching > Plate Discipline
OFOut%
outfield fly out percentage
Batting > Batted Ball
OPS
On-base Plus Slugging percentage
Batting > Advanced
O-Swing%,Z-Swing%,Swing%,SwStr%
swing percentage
Batting > Plate Discipline
O-Swing%,Z-Swing%,Swing%,SwStr%
swing percentage
Pitching > Plate Discipline
PA
Plate Appearance
Batting > Standard
PB
Passed Balls
Fielding > Standard
PH
Pinch Hit Opportunities
Batting > Win Probability
PhLI
Average Leverage Index while Pinch Hitting
Batting > Win Probability
pLI
Player Average Leverage Index
Batting > Win Probability
pLI
Player Average Leverage Index
Pitching > Win Probability
Pull%,Cent%,Oppo%
batted ball direction
Batting > Batted Ball
Pull%,Cent%,Oppo%
batted ball direction
Pitching > Batted Ball
R
runs allowed
Pitching > Standard
RBI
Runs Batted In
Batting > Standard
RE24
Run Above Average based on the 24 Base/Out States
Batting > Win Probability
RE24
Run Above Average based on the 24 Base/Out States
Pitching > Win Probability
REW
Wins Above Average based on the 24 Base/Out States
Batting > Win Probability
REW
Wins Above Average based on the 24 Base/Out States
Pitching > Win Probability
rPB
Passed Balls Saved runs above average
Fielding > Advanced
rSB
Stolen Base Runs Saved runs above average
Fielding > Advanced
SB
Steal a Base
Batting > Standard
SB
steal a base
Pitching > Standard
SB
Stolen Bases
Fielding > Standard
Scp%
First Baseman Scoops percentage
Fielding > Standard
SF
Sacrifice Fly
Batting > Standard
SH
Sacrifice Hit
Batting > Standard
SLG
Slugging percentage
Batting > Advanced
SO
Strike Out
Batting > Standard
Soft%,Mid%,Hard%
quality of contact stats
Batting > Batted Ball
Soft%,Mid%,Hard%
quality of contact stats
Pitching > Batted Ball
TBF
total batters faced
Pitching > Standard
TE
Throwing Errors
Fielding > Standard
WAR
wins above replacement
Batting > Value
WAR
WAR
wins above replacement
Pitching > Value
WAR
wCB/C
Curveball runs above average per 100 pitches
Batting > Pitch Value
wCB/C
Curveball runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
wCH/C
Changeup runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
wCT/C
Cutter runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
wFA/C
Fastball runs above average per 100 pitches
Batting > Pitch Value
wFA/C
Fastball runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
wFT
Two Seam Fastball runs above average
Batting > Pitch Value
wFT
Two Seam Fastball runs above average
Pitching > Pitch Value
wFT/C
Two Seam Fastball runs above average per 100 pitches
Batting > Pitch Value
wFT/C
Two Seam Fastball runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
WP
wild pitch
Pitching > Standard
WP
Wild Pitches
Fielding > Standard
wSB
weighted Stolen Base runs
Batting > Advanced
wSF/C
Splitter runs above average per 100 pitches
Batting > Pitch Value
wSF/C
Splitter runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
wSI/C
Sinker runs above average per 100 pitches
Batting > Pitch Value
wSI/C
Sinker runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
wSL/C
Slider runs above average per 100 pitches
Batting > Pitch Value
wSL/C
Slider runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
wSP/C
Special runs above average per 100 pitches
Batting > Pitch Value
wSP/C
Special runs above average per 100 pitches
Pitching > Pitch Value
Zone%,F-Strike%
pitches in the strike zone percentage
Batting > Plate Discipline
Zone%,F-Strike%
pitches in the strike zone percentage
Pitching > Plate Discipline
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